He who places his hope on thee, O Virgin all-glorious, will prosper in all he does.

Inscription on Byzantine coin during reign of Romanus III

Friday, January 13, 2012

Based On What?

It means that if Romney hangs on to win the Palmetto State, the market says he has a whopping 95 percent chance of grabbing the most delegates in Florida and Nevada too.

The author doesn't suffer from fuzzy probability math, but from fuzzy thinking about probability. Prediction markets are always correct until they're wrong.

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